Polarities and field configurations of the vertex components of the human auditory evoked response: A reinterpretation

The cephalic spatial distributions and phase relationships of the late components, N1 and P2, of the auditory evoked response, elicited by repetitive moderate-intensity tone pips, were assessed in man with a non-cephalic reference. There was no evidence of a polarity reversal at any site on the head, failing to confirm Vaughan and Ritter's (1970) sylvian phase reversal hypothesis.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/33589/1/0000093.pd

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper

Evolution of Robustness to Noise and Mutation in Gene Expression Dynamics

Phenotype of biological systems needs to be robust against mutation in order to sustain themselves between generations. On the other hand, phenotype of an individual also needs to be robust against fluctuations of both internal and external origins that are encountered during growth and development. Is there a relationship between these two types of robustness, one during a single generation and the other during evolution? Could stochasticity in gene expression have any relevance to the evolution of these robustness? Robustness can be defined by the sharpness of the distribution of phenotype; the variance of phenotype distribution due to genetic variation gives a measure of `genetic robustness' while that of isogenic individuals gives a measure of `developmental robustness'. Through simulations of a simple stochastic gene expression network that undergoes mutation and selection, we show that in order for the network to acquire both types of robustness, the phenotypic variance induced by mutations must be smaller than that observed in an isogenic population. As the latter originates from noise in gene expression, this signifies that the genetic robustness evolves only when the noise strength in gene expression is larger than some threshold. In such a case, the two variances decrease throughout the evolutionary time course, indicating increase in robustness. The results reveal how noise that cells encounter during growth and development shapes networks' robustness to stochasticity in gene expression, which in turn shapes networks' robustness to mutation. The condition for evolution of robustness as well as relationship between genetic and developmental robustness is derived through the variance of phenotypic fluctuations, which are measurable experimentally.Comment: 25 page

The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations

The tracing of potentially infectious contacts has become an important part of the control strategy for many infectious diseases, from early cases of novel infections to endemic sexually transmitted infections. Here, we make use of mathematical models to consider the case of partner notification for sexually transmitted infection, however these models are sufficiently simple to allow more general conclusions to be drawn. We show that, when contact network structure is considered in addition to contact tracing, standard “mass action” models are generally inadequate. To consider the impact of mutual contacts (specifically clustering) we develop an improvement to existing pairwise network models, which we use to demonstrate that ceteris paribus, clustering improves the efficacy of contact tracing for a large region of parameter space. This result is sometimes reversed, however, for the case of highly effective contact tracing. We also develop stochastic simulations for comparison, using simple re-wiring methods that allow the generation of appropriate comparator networks. In this way we contribute to the general theory of network-based interventions against infectious disease

A new method to analyse the pace of child development: Cox regression validated by a bootstrap resampling procedure

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Various perinatal factors influencing neuromotor development are known from cross sectional studies. Factors influencing the age at which distinct abilities are acquired are uncertain. We hypothesized that the Cox regression model might identify these factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Neonates treated at Aachen University Hospital in 2000/2001 were identified retrospectively (n = 796). Outcome data, based on a structured interview, were available from 466 children, as were perinatal data. Factors possibly related to outcome were identified by bootstrap selection and then included into a multivariate Cox regression model. To evaluate if the parental assessment might change with the time elapsed since birth we studied five age cohorts of 163 normally developed children.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Birth weight, gestational age, congenital cardiac disease and periventricular leukomalacia were related to outcome in the multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). Analysis of the control cohorts revealed that the parents' assessment of the ability of bladder control is modified by the time elapsed since birth.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Combined application of the bootstrap resampling procedure and multivariate Cox regression analysis effectively identifies perinatal factors influencing the age at which distinct abilities are acquired. These were similar as known from previous cross sectional studies. Retrospective data acquistion may lead to a bias because the parental memories change with time. This recommends applying this statistical approach in larger prospective trials.</p

Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola.

As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy candidate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest that if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benefit of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts

The interrelatedness of cognitive abilities in very preterm and full‐term born children at 5.5 years of age : a psychometric network analysis approach

Background Very preterm (VP) birth is associated with a considerable risk for cognitive impairment, putting children at a disadvantage in academic and everyday life. Despite lower cognitive ability on the group level, there are large individual differences among VP born children. Contemporary theories define intelligence as a network of reciprocally connected cognitive abilities. Therefore, intelligence was studied as a network of interrelated abilities to provide insight into interindividual differences. We described and compared the network of cognitive abilities, including strength of interrelations between and the relative importance of abilities, of VP and full-term (FT) born children and VP children with below-average and average-high intelligence at 5.5 years. Methods A total of 2,253 VP children from the EPIPAGE-2 cohort and 578 FT controls who participated in the 5.5-year-follow-up were eligible for inclusion. The WPPSI-IV was used to measure verbal comprehension, visuospatial abilities, fluid reasoning, working memory, and processing speed. Psychometric network analysis was applied to analyse the data. Results Cognitive abilities were densely and positively interconnected in all networks, but the strength of connections differed between networks. The cognitive network of VP children was more strongly interconnected than that of FT children. Furthermore, VP children with below average IQ had a more strongly connected network than VP children with average-high IQ. Contrary to our expectations, working memory had the least central role in all networks. Conclusions In line with the ability differentiation hypothesis, children with higher levels of cognitive ability had a less interconnected and more specialised cognitive structure. Composite intelligence scores may therefore mask domain-specific deficits, particularly in children at risk for cognitive impairments (e.g., VP born children), even when general intelligence is unimpaired. In children with strongly and densely connected networks, domain-specific deficits may have a larger overall impact, resulting in lower intelligence levels

Metabolic rate throughout the annual cycle reveals the demands of an Arctic existence in Great Cormorants

Aquatic endotherms living in polar regions are faced with a multitude of challenges, including low air and water temperatures and low illumination, especially in winter. Like other endotherms from cold environments, Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) living in Arctic waters were hypothesized to respond to these challenges through combination of high daily rate of energy expenditure (DEE) and high food requirements, which are met by a high rate of catch per unit effort (CPUE). CPUE has previously been shown in Great Cormorants to be the highest of any diving bird. In the present study, we tested this hypothesis by making the first measurements of DEE and foraging activity of Arctic-dwelling Great Cormorants throughout the annual cycle. We demonstrate that, in fact, Great Cormorants have surprisingly low rates of DEE. This low DEE is attributed primarily to very low levels of foraging activity, particularly during winter, when the cormorants spent only 2% of their day submerged. Such a low level of foraging activity can only be sustained through consistently high foraging performance. We demonstrate that Great Cormorants have one of the highest recorded CPUEs for a diving predator; 18.6 g per minute submerged (95% prediction interval 13.0-24.2 g/min) during winter. Temporal variation in CPUE was investigated, and highest CPUE was associated with long days and shallow diving depths. The effect of day length is attributed to seasonal variation in prey abundance. Shallow diving leads to high CPUE because less time is spent swimming between the surface and the benthic zone where foraging occurs. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining accurate measurements of physiology and behavior from free-living animals when attempting to understand their ecology

Spatial Guilds in the Serengeti Food Web Revealed by a Bayesian Group Model

Food webs, networks of feeding relationships among organisms, provide fundamental insights into mechanisms that determine ecosystem stability and persistence. Despite long-standing interest in the compartmental structure of food webs, past network analyses of food webs have been constrained by a standard definition of compartments, or modules, that requires many links within compartments and few links between them. Empirical analyses have been further limited by low-resolution data for primary producers. In this paper, we present a Bayesian computational method for identifying group structure in food webs using a flexible definition of a group that can describe both functional roles and standard compartments. The Serengeti ecosystem provides an opportunity to examine structure in a newly compiled food web that includes species-level resolution among plants, allowing us to address whether groups in the food web correspond to tightly-connected compartments or functional groups, and whether network structure reflects spatial or trophic organization, or a combination of the two. We have compiled the major mammalian and plant components of the Serengeti food web from published literature, and we infer its group structure using our method. We find that network structure corresponds to spatially distinct plant groups coupled at higher trophic levels by groups of herbivores, which are in turn coupled by carnivore groups. Thus the group structure of the Serengeti web represents a mixture of trophic guild structure and spatial patterns, in contrast to the standard compartments typically identified in ecological networks. From data consisting only of nodes and links, the group structure that emerges supports recent ideas on spatial coupling and energy channels in ecosystems that have been proposed as important for persistence.Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures (+ 3 supporting), 2 tables (+ 4 supporting

Evolving Clustered Random Networks

We propose a Markov chain simulation method to generate simple connected random graphs with a specified degree sequence and level of clustering. The networks generated by our algorithm are random in all other respects and can thus serve as generic models for studying the impacts of degree distributions and clustering on dynamical processes as well as null models for detecting other structural properties in empirical networks